Voters Favor Democratic Congress By 7 Points Ahead Of Midterms

A new national poll from NBC News places Democrats seven points ahead in the race for Congress, with registered voters supporting a Democratic-controlled legislature 52% to 45%. This margin represents a two-point increase over last month's figures. The survey, conducted between October 28 and 30, finds that 21% of independent voters favor the Democrats, a key demographic in tight races.

President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has hit a record 60%, the highest level in his two terms according to NBC News data. His approval stands at 40%. Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic pollster from Hart Research Associates who co-conducted the study with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, noted that the current climate pits Trump’s initial promises against the immediate stakes of the upcoming election.

Economic dissatisfaction drives much of the voter sentiment. Approximately three-quarters of voters are unhappy with the economy, a condition worsened by rising prices during the conflict with Iran. For the first time in 30 years of polling, more voters (51%) report being dissatisfied with their personal financial situation than satisfied (49%). Half of all voters call for a profound change in the country’s direction, a new high in NBC News records.

The Republican Party faces internal strain as it holds narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. While 93% of self-identified MAGA Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance, support drops to 54% among Republicans who do not identify with that movement. In 2025, 75% of Republicans said the country was on the right track. That figure has fallen to 43% this year, while 48% now say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Democrats hold a one-point advantage in managing inflation, a slight drop from September but a warning sign for Republicans who led this metric in 2024. Republicans maintain a two-point edge in general economic management, though this lead has shrunk from double digits in recent years. Voters cite inflation and the cost of living as the top national issues, followed by government corruption, threats to democracy, immigration, and border security.

Enthusiasm for the midterms is high, with 70% of voters rating their interest on a 9 or 10 scale. Democrats lead by 12 points among the most engaged voters, while Republicans hold a two-point advantage among those with lower interest. Republicans in MAGA districts show higher engagement than their non-MAGA counterparts, prompting party leaders to mobilize voters who typically skip midterms.

The electoral map remains a hurdle for Democrats. To take the House and Senate, they must win districts and states that Trump captured in 2024. In the Senate, Democrats need victories in at least two states where Trump won by double digits. Despite this, Trump’s approval in those states is negative, with 53% disapproving of his performance compared to 47% who approve. This is a 10-point decline from March 2025.

Voters show skepticism toward both parties. Only 29% view the Democratic Party favorably, compared to 38% who view the Republican Party positively. Nearly half of voters hold negative views of both. A Texas voter who supported Trump in 2024 told pollsters he prefers a shift in power to avoid one-party control, adding that he trusts neither party. This sentiment reflects a broader rejection of the status quo rather than a strong preference for the opposition.

Republicans are currently leading in legislative ballot questions in districts and states they control. However, Democrats lead among the 28% of voters who trust neither party to handle government corruption. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) holds the highest positive rating among congressional leaders at 24%, compared to 34% negative. Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ratings were also tracked in the survey, though specific numbers for him were cut off in the source data provided.