Texas Senate: 50% not required to win

Two-point swings in border counties and suburban Dallas-Fort Worth will decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas, where neither candidate is currently polling at 50 percent. The contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico hinges on specific voting blocs that could break the tie in a tight election.

Latinos comprise more than 30 percent of the state's eligible electorate. Hispanic voters made up 19 percent of the statewide early electorate this year, up from 16 percent in 2022 and 17 percent in 2024. In South Texas, early voting turnout in Hidalgo, Starr, and Webb counties already exceeds levels from the 2024 presidential cycle. Talarico needs to beat Colin Allred's 2024 performance in Bexar and El Paso counties, where Allred received 55.6 and 57.9 percent of the vote respectively.

The Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs represent a critical battleground. Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties accounted for nearly 16 percent of the 2024 statewide vote. Trump won those areas by margins of 5, 11, and 13 percentage points. Talarico aims to flip these counties, while Paxton seeks to hold red suburbs like Celina and Colleyville. The race also involves the Asian American population in Collin County, which is more than one-fifth Asian American and heavily Indian American.

Harris County provides another key indicator. Democratic candidates have carried the area for a decade, but no Democrat has matched Beto O'Rourke's 58 percent share from 2018. Talarico launched a $25 million initiative to boost turnout among Black voters in September. Early voting data shows Harris County's turnout rate at 39 percent, compared to 29 percent in 2022.

Rural counties have historically provided a Republican firewall. Ted Cruz won more than 80 percent of the vote in 104 counties in 2024. However, frustration over data centers and water access is growing in areas like Hale, Hood, Fisher, and Navarro counties. If Republican turnout drops in these regions, Talarico could gain ground.

Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and abstainers offer a third path. Brown typically polls between 1 and 3 percent, attracting more independents and Republicans. In a close race, a winner could secure the seat without reaching 50 percent. Linda Misenheimer, a 72-year-old independent from El Paso, left the Senate race blank on her ballot. To be honest, in good conscience, I could not vote for any of the three, Misenheimer said.