Ohio State Faces USC in High-Stakes Clash

Ohio State allows opponents to complete just 32% of their passes, a defensive statistic that defines the matchup against USC on Saturday. The two teams meet at 7:30 p.m. on NBC, with the Buckeyes listed as seven-point favorites.

USC enters the contest at 6-2 after falling to Wisconsin last week. The Trojans also lost to Oregon earlier in the season. Their record against AP Top 25 opponents stands at 0-1. Ohio State is 6-1 overall and 2-1 against Top 25 teams. The Buckeyes lost to Texas in Week 2 of the season.

Luke Fahey will start at quarterback for Ohio State. He makes his first career start on the road. Julian Sayin is out for the game. Fahey has attempted 13 passes in limited action this season. His previous experience has been mostly at home. The Buckeye offense must adjust its rhythm without its primary signal caller.

Bo Jackson carries the ball for Ohio State. He averages 5.9 yards per carry at home this season. That figure drops to 3.8 yards per carry on the road. The source notes that road competition has been tougher, but the team has not proven it can run effectively in difficult matchups without a strong passing threat to balance the attack. The offense is expected to simplify its plays, which may reduce efficiency.

Jayden Maiava leads the USC offense. He completes nearly 70% of his passes at home. He averages 9.2 yards per attempt in those games. He has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions in home contests. On the road, his completion percentage falls to 62.6% and his average yards per attempt drops to 7.3. Hosting the game in Los Angeles provides a statistical advantage for the Trojans.

Maiava finds his most success on intermediate throws. He has thrown seven touchdowns and one interception on passes traveling between 10 and 19 yards. This range allows USC to move the ball without relying solely on deep passes. The Trojans can sustain drives through mid-range completions.

DraftKings lists the money line for Ohio State at minus 265 and USC at plus 215. The over/under for total points is set at 51.5. The over is priced at minus 105 and the under at minus 115. These odds are subject to change. The total reflects an expectation of a lower-scoring affair.

Ohio State has won 58 games against unranked opponents under head coach Ryan Day. The team has lost only one such game, a 2024 loss to Michigan. This record illustrates how rarely upsets occur against the Buckeyes. However, Ohio State averages just 6.3 points in the fourth quarter on the road over the last two seasons. That average drops to 4.3 points in the fourth quarter in those same road games.

The defensive strength of Ohio State is the primary obstacle for USC. The Buckeye unit limits successful plays on opponent passes. USC’s running game may not provide enough support to take pressure off Maiava. The Trojans will need to work for their points. If the game stays close, Maiava offers USC a chance to finish strong in the final quarter. The prediction favors USC by seven points.