No clear Knesset majority emerges

Polls opened at 7:00 a.m. Tuesday as Israeli voters cast ballots in the first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current coalition against an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Neither camp appears close to securing the 61 seats required for a governing majority.

A final Channel 12 poll released Friday projected the opposition bloc at 56 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 50. That margin leaves both sides dependent on the Arab parties, which are projected to win 16 seats combined. Most opposition leaders have pledged against governing with Arab partners, citing the impact of the October 7 attacks on coalition viability.

Within the opposition, Yashar is projected to win 22 seats, placing it ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. Likud is projected to fall from its current 32 seats to 19. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to receive 14 seats. These numbers suggest a fragmented legislature where smaller parties will hold the balance of power.

Key issues on the ballot include the IDF’s manpower crisis after three years of war, legislation on ultra-Orthodox conscription, and calls for a state commission of inquiry into the government’s actions before October 7. Traditional debates over a Palestinian state have receded as most major parties now oppose statehood.

Voter turnout will determine the number of votes needed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout rate, similar to 2022, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset. If turnout rises, the threshold increases, making it harder for smaller parties to secure representation.

Several minor parties are fighting to clear that bar, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party. Whether these groups enter the Knesset will directly affect the ability of either bloc to form a stable government. Voting at diplomatic missions ended on October 16, and some military bases voted last week.

Police prepared for public order challenges by deploying approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers nationwide. Forces were stationed at thousands of polling stations to maintain security. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m., with official results to follow in the coming days.