Vance Signals Path to Iran Deal as Oil Prices Fall

Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday as diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran showed signs of progress. Vice President JD Vance told reporters in Washington that the two nations have engaged in a number of good conversations. He stated that both he and President Donald Trump feel optimistic about the prospects for a negotiated settlement. Vance noted that he spoke with the president about the situation less than an hour before addressing the press.

The diplomatic activity follows a letter Vance sent to Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's security chief, last week. The White House provided few details regarding the contents of that correspondence. President Trump described the letter to reporters as a focus on assisting Iran with medical supplies and various other items. Rezaei told state television that the tone from the United States has completely changed. He called the shift a very good sign but did not provide specifics on the letter or say he had responded.

The potential for a deal comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes for renewed military action. Two regional officials and a third person familiar with the matter said Netanyahu is seeking another wave of strikes on Iran after Tuesday's U.S. elections. A return to full-scale war could help Netanyahu form an emergency government after he and his far-right allies lost their parliamentary majority in last week's Israeli elections. One official said Netanyahu was working with senior U.S. officials to persuade the president to launch a quick but extensive air campaign. The president has not yet made a decision on that matter.

Netanyahu pressed for strikes during a phone call with Trump over the weekend. A person briefed on the discussion said the Israeli leader would not commit to taking military action. Other U.S. allies in the Middle East are warning against new strikes. A third regional official said those nations believe additional attacks could destabilize the region and encourage Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen to increase attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. Iran-backed militias in Iraq could also become involved in any new escalation.

Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials last week. The mediators are attempting to advance a framework for Iran to cease attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade on Iranian ports. More talks are planned for this week. The two officials who provided this information spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing classified briefings from American and Israeli officials.

The war has cost U.S. taxpayers at least $47 billion. President Trump sought to minimize the scale of the conflict during a speech in Washington on Monday. He told the audience that he does not know if the situation should be called a war because the United States has not been doing any fighting for months. Rising prices at the pump have weighed on the Republican Party as it tries to maintain control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections.

Vance said the Republican administration's foremost concern is ensuring Iran agrees to take substantive action on its nuclear program. He added that a pathway exists but requires a firm and verifiable commitment from Iran that it will not rebuild its nuclear program. Iranian officials have stated publicly that they are prepared for war or diplomacy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, met with military chiefs and said the response to any threat from the U.S. or Israel should be immediate and without geographic limits.