7.3 Million Israelis Weigh In as Polls Project 54-Seat Opposition Lead

7.3 million Israelis are eligible to cast ballots on Tuesday in a contest that final polls suggest will be decided by a narrow margin. The election determines the direction of the country three years after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on southern Israel. That event triggered a war in Gaza and heightened tensions with neighboring states.

The vote arrives amid escalating activity in the occupied West Bank and domestic disputes over the handling of the war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces questions regarding alleged failures prior to October 7, the search for captives, corruption allegations, and military service requirements for ultra-Orthodox citizens.

Pre-election polling indicates a tight race. Data collated by the Israeli news outlet Haaretz from Channels 11, 12, and 13 shows an average prediction that Netanyahu's coalition will secure 50 seats. The opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot is projected to take 54 seats. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats.

Polls opened at 7:00 a.m. local time on Tuesday and will close at 10:00 p.m. Local time. The electorate includes 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Israelis living abroad cannot vote because the system lacks a general absentee ballot. Voters must be physically present at polling stations. Diplomats and state emissaries were the only exceptions, having cast ballots at Israeli missions on October 20.

News channels will broadcast exit poll results immediately after polls close. Initial indications are likely to appear within a few hours. The Central Elections Committee website will also display results live. While a general picture may emerge quickly, the final vote tally is expected by Friday. Official results are formally published one week after the election, on November 4.

The electoral system uses proportional representation. Voters select a single party rather than individual candidates. Seat allocation is linked to the proportion of the national vote. A party must secure at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter the Knesset. Approximately a dozen parties are expected to cross this threshold. This requires time to calculate final seat allocations.

Once the count is complete, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders. He will nominate the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The nominee then has 42 days to assemble a cabinet. No single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel. Governments are formed through coalitions, and negotiations often take weeks.

If no government emerges, the current cabinet remains as a caretaker. The candidate with the most votes may attempt to form a minority government or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with a rival leader. If all negotiations fail, new elections must be called.

If a coalition forms, it will take office. If not, the caretaker government continues until a new mandate is secured.