Likud Splits Over Netanyahu's Path as Outside Groups Mobilize Voters

Likud insiders are divided on whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can win Tuesday's election, with disagreement focused on two fronts: his standing in internal polls and the scale of outside spending aimed at boosting turnout in the opposing camp. Some party members point to favorable projections from Shlomo Filber, who oversees Likud's internal polling. Others worry about the money flowing to groups working against the prime minister. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," a Likud source said. On Filber's forecasts, the source added: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Party sources said organizations and nonprofits are funding social media campaigns, signs, field events, rides for Arab voters, and travel for Israelis abroad who want to cast ballots. One Likud source described the effort as "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that these groups give parties opposed to Netanyahu a support network outside the rules that govern party financing. The party also said the Central Elections Committee concentrated on campaign video limits and public resource use while paying less attention to the organizations' activity. The sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity broke the law.

The election date was set for October 27, which allowed Netanyahu's government to complete its full term. A survey released days before the vote found nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided. Likud has been working to hold right-wing votes inside the party's camp. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan failed to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander who leads the People of Israel party, to leave the race; Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter. Likud has also courted supporters of other right-wing slates, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party dropped out after discussions with Likud, during which the two sides also raised the possibility of legislation letting the party name a deputy minister.

The party is building a large-scale field operation for Election Day, though rules limit what information can be gathered at polling stations. Israeli voters head to the polls Tuesday.