Netanyahu Faces Stalemate After Historic Israeli Turnout

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu watched the initial results roll in on Wednesday, standing firm despite a sharp drop in support for his governing coalition. The election, which saw the highest turnout in Israel since 1999, delivered a rebuke to his administration but did not hand a decisive victory to his main challenger. With 50% of votes counted, Likud held 20.6% of the vote while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party trailed at 16.8%.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly 17 years, dismissed the prospect of forming a government with Arab-led parties. He described such a partnership as treasonous and insisted on a strong, right-wing nationalist cabinet. "We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties," he said. His stance left little room for the centrist coalition that opponents hope to build.

Eisenkot, a former military chief, has kept the door open to working with Arab parties under specific conditions. He requires their recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and of Hamas as an extremist group. However, several likely partners have already ruled out such an alliance. The exit polls suggest that Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s each won approximately 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Arab parties secured about 18. This mathematical reality sets the stage for intense negotiations or a potential return to the polls.

The election results reflected deep unease among Israelis regarding Netanyahu’s alliance with the far right and the draft exemptions granted to the ultra-Orthodox population. The Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent three-year war fueled anger that many hoped would displace the prime minister. Yet the close results indicate that this anger was not enough to force an outright change in leadership.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir emerged as a clear loser in the count. His high-profile rhetoric, including claims that some residents of Gaza are "not even people," alienated a portion of the electorate. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, declared his party’s presence as no longer on the sidelines. The United Arab List is the only Arab party to have ever joined a governing coalition, a brief occurrence in 2021.

President Isaac Herzog is not required to task the largest party with forming a government. He will assess which bloc can secure a stable majority. If no coalition emerges, Israel could face new elections early next year, echoing the five elections held between April 2019 and November 2022. Final results, including hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots, are expected in the coming days.

The political landscape remains polarized. Supporters view Netanyahu as a leader who protected Israel’s security during a war of redemption. Detractors argue he prolonged the hostage crisis for political gain and undermined the judiciary. Eisenkot’s supporters point to the personal cost of the war, noting that his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, and believe his security credentials position him to reverse what they see as creeping illiberalism.