Trump's Midterm Gambit: Rallies, Distance, and the Polls

It is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and polling places across the Southeast are open for the midterm election. In Georgia and Florida, polls opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 7 p.m. North Carolina polls opened at 6:30 a.m. and will remain open until 7:30 p.m. Voters in South Carolina and Mississippi also have polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., while Tennessee voting hours vary by county. These elections determine who controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term.

The Associated Press describes this election as a referendum on the president's second term. According to AP-NORC polling, 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance. Only 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in ten adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for high prices. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states.

President Trump has been actively campaigning throughout the region. He held dozens of rallies, ending his recent schedule in Salina, Kansas. At that event, he told supporters, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." His recent travel schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. Despite his visible presence, many Republican candidates have kept their distance from the president during this final stretch of the campaign.

The president has continued to make claims about voting fraud, including statements that noncitizens vote in large numbers. His administration has sued in Alaska and California, and Democrats fear interference and intimidation as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting on Monday. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on its lists of suspected noncitizens.

In Georgia, the Senate race features incumbent Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, against Republican Representative Mike Collins. The governor's race is an open seat following the term limit for Brian Kemp. In Florida, there is no Senate race on the ballot, but the governor's race is also an open seat. North Carolina voters are deciding the Senate seat left open by Thom Tillis, who retired after clashing with Trump. The race pits Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley.

South Carolina voters are facing a choice between incumbent Senate President Darline Graham and her opponents, along with an open governor's race. Tennessee voters are deciding the Senate seat held by incumbent Bill Hagerty and an open governor's race. Alabama voters are choosing a new senator in an open seat and a new governor in an open seat. Mississippi voters are deciding the Senate race featuring incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. The AP calls the governor races in Texas, Florida, and Iowa competitive, and notes that Democrats hope to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades.

Money is playing a significant role in these elections, which are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. An AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This included more than $850 million in areas where he won by 10 points or more.

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene stated, "The American people are angry. They want change." Voter Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, told the AP, "I've just been following Trump the whole time. I really think he's doing an awesome job." James Moore, 57, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, said, "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything."

The stakes are high for both parties. Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, with the AP noting that one or two seats could tip either chamber. Democrats were described as cautiously optimistic. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker if his party takes the House, and he has outlined a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would boost potential 2028 candidates Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, and could complicate Vice President JD Vance's path.

The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines so mail ballots are counted on time. Wall Street is watching for more than control of Congress, as Reuters notes results could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. Anyone in line when polls close is entitled to vote, and ID rules vary by state. Voters in the Southeast are casting their ballots today to decide the balance of power in the federal government for the next two years.