120 seats up for grabs in Israeli election with no projected majority

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday for all 120 seats in the Knesset, the country's unicameral parliament. The vote comes three years after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and while active military operations continue in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

Polls show a tight race with no clear winner. Most surveys indicate that neither the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition change bloc will secure the 61 seats required to form a government unilaterally. This lack of a decisive majority sets the stage for potential political deadlock.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described the likely outcome as indecisive. He noted that the tight margins could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government, or a repeat election.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history, seeks to rebuild his current coalition of ultranationalist and religious parties. His campaign centers on two main arguments: that only he can form a government without relying on Arab parties, and that he needs more time to complete military campaigns against Iran.

President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States would have to conduct its own military work against Iran if Israel chose a different leader. Trump stated that if Israel had the wrong leader, America would have to do the work itself, a task he was not inclined to undertake. Netanyahu has since used this endorsement to argue that he is the only leader capable of working with Trump to prevent a nuclear Iran.

The opposition, known as the change bloc, consists of Arab, right, left, and center parties united by their desire to replace Netanyahu. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, is the front-runner to lead this coalition. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war and served in the war cabinet for much of its first year.

Eisenkot promises to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7 attacks, a step Netanyahu has previously blocked. He also positioned his party as a unifying force, noting that about half of his candidates are women. He criticized Netanyahu's recent social media posts, including an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv, for relying on fear-mongering.

Voter turnout remains a critical variable. Arab Israelis, who comprise about 20% of the population, may vote in higher numbers to block a Netanyahu-led government with far-right allies. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in the Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, said many in his community feel they have no hope under the current government. Higher Arab turnout would make it harder for Netanyahu to form a coalition.

Two new parties focused on demanding ultra-Orthodox men enter mandatory military service are also running. Polls show these parties hovering near the electoral threshold. If they win seats, they could disrupt Netanyahu's traditional support base and tip the balance of power in either direction.

If neither bloc wins a majority, several outcomes are possible. Parties or individual lawmakers might switch sides to form a coalition, a common occurrence in Israeli politics. Alternatively, the change bloc could attempt to form a minority government if it wins more seats than the opposition, even if that total is below 50%. If negotiations fail, Israel will hold new elections, echoing the period between 2019 and 2022 when the country voted five times due to similar deadlocks.