Israel's Next Government May Depend on Three Seats and Naftali Bennett

Political assessments circulating in Jerusalem suggest that the three-member faction of Agudat Yisrael will determine the composition of Israel's next government. The group, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, is currently evaluating whether to provide support to a cabinet led by the opposition. With voting beginning in less than 24 hours, political figures are reviewing several potential outcomes. These scenarios include a government that relies on votes from Arab parties or a return to the polls for a second election.

One specific proposal under discussion involves Agudat Yisrael backing an opposition-led administration in exchange for budgetary commitments. However, analysts note that such a deal would not automatically resolve the need for additional support from Arab parties. The idea of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. In August, the Maariv newspaper reported that the faction was exploring new political options, including potential collaboration with Gadi Eisenkot. Those discussions occurred during a period of tension within United Torah Judaism. Friction existed between Agudat Yisrael and the Degel Hatorah faction over issues regarding the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

According to reports from that time, Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the behavior of the current coalition. Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his government. Rabbi Dov Lando also wrote a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc. This correspondence added uncertainty to the relationship between the haredi parties and the right-wing leadership. Despite these internal shifts, Goldknopf faces a structural obstacle. His voter base is largely aligned with the political Right. Assessments cited in the report indicate that any visible support for a change bloc government could drive some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Political circles are considering a scenario in which Bennett joins a Netanyahu-led government if neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority. This is viewed as a remote possibility. Some observers believe Bennett is the only leader within the change bloc capable of taking such a step due to his background on the Right. The move would require him to shift his base of support, and the composition of his current party would complicate the transition. A similar move by Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned, particularly because he previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu cabinet. Current assessments hold that Liberman is far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

The question of which politician might be willing to move their political base could become a central issue in coalition negotiations. For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than formal agreements reached between the parties.